Global Energy Transition: Demand, Emissions and the Tripling Goal

The IEA's Global Energy Review 2025 shows global energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024 [1]. Demand reached nearly 650 EJ [2]. Growth was faster than the annual average of 1.3% between 2013 and 2023 [2]. The IEA estimates extreme weather added 0.3 percentage points to the 2.2% growth [2].

Demand for all fuels and technologies expanded in 2024 [1]. Emerging and developing economies accounted for over 80% of global energy demand growth [1].

Renewables accounted for the largest share of growth in global energy supply in 2024 at 38%, followed by natural gas (28%), coal (15%), oil (11%) and nuclear (8%) [1].

Oil's share of total energy demand fell below 30% for the first time, 50 years after peaking at 46% [1]. Oil demand rose 0.8% in 2024, natural gas demand rose 2.7% (115 bcm) and coal demand rose 1% [1].

Around 700 GW of renewable capacity was added in 2024, nearly 80% of it solar PV [1]. Over 7 GW of nuclear capacity came online, 33% more than in 2023 [1].

Energy sector carbon emissions reached a new record in 2024 [1]. Emissions growth slowed to 0.8%, an increase of 300 million tonnes of CO2, while the global economy expanded by more than 3% [1]. The IEA estimates that about half of the increase would have been avoided if 2024 weather had matched 2023 [1].

Solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps deployed since 2019 now prevent 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, equivalent to 7% of global emissions [1]. Emissions in advanced economies fell by 1.1% to 10.9 billion tonnes in 2024 [1].

Energy intensity improved by only 1% in 2024, compared with around 2% a year between 2010 and 2019 [1].

At COP28, countries agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030 [4]. IRENA says 11.2 TW is needed to meet this goal [3]. Global renewable capacity was 4,448 GW at the end of 2024 after a record 585 GW was added [3].

To reach the goal, IRENA says renewable capacity must expand by 16.6% a year until 2030 [3]. Growth in 2024 was 15.1% [3]. GWEC says wind alone must scale to 320 GW of annual installations by 2030 [4].

In 2025, renewables overtook coal in global electricity generation, with a share of 33.8% against 33.0%, according to Ember [5]. Clean power met all new electricity demand and fossil generation fell 0.2% [5].

Energy demand, supply and CO2 figures are from the IEA Global Energy Review 2025 key findings [1] and global trends chapter [2], covering 2024. Renewable capacity and the 11.2 TW requirement are from IRENA's Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025 release [3]. The COP28 goal and wind requirement are from GWEC [4]. 2025 power data are from Ember [5]. Energy is in exajoules (EJ); emissions in tonnes of CO2; capacity in GW or TW. No FREEE.REPORT calculations are used.