US Housing Market: Key Indicators Explained

A guide to the official data series that track the US housing market: housing starts, home prices and mortgage rates, and where to find them.

Updated October 1, 2026
5 min read
4 sources
United States

Executive Summary

Three groups of indicators explain most of what is happening in the US housing market: how many homes are being built, what homes sell for, and what it costs to borrow. Each is published regularly by an official or long-running source. This guide explains what each one measures and how to read it. Use the linked data for the latest values.

Construction: Housing Starts and Permits

The Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release reports building permits, housing starts and completions each month [1]. Housing starts count new privately owned homes on which construction has begun [2].

Permits are an early signal: they show what builders plan to start in the coming months. Starts and completions show actual building activity.

Prices: Home Price Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the price of the same homes as they are resold over time [3]. Comparing repeat sales of the same homes removes some of the distortion from changes in which homes happen to sell.

The series is not seasonally adjusted, so compare the same month across years rather than month to month.

Financing: Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is published weekly [4]. Small changes in mortgage rates make a big difference to monthly payments, so this is one of the most closely watched measures of how affordable housing is.

How to Read Them Together

Rising permits and starts usually point to growing supply in the months ahead.
Rising prices alongside rising mortgage rates point to worsening affordability.
Falling starts after rate rises often reflect builders responding to weaker demand.

No single indicator tells the full story. Read them together, and against local data where possible.

Methodology

This is a guide to indicators, not a market-size estimate, so it deliberately gives no figures. All linked series are free to access and are updated on a regular schedule [1][2][3][4].

Sources

[1]
New Residential Construction / U.S. Census Bureau / View source
[2]
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units (HOUST) / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / View source
[3]
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / View source
[4]
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / View source

Figures are reproduced from the publishers above. Calculations marked as our own are derived from these figures. Always check the original source before using a number.