Global Inflation: IMF Headline Consumer Price Projections 2024-2027

The IMF projects global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before it eases to 3.9% in 2027 [1]. The 2026 forecast is 0.3 percentage point higher than in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook, and the 2027 forecast is 0.2 percentage point higher [1]. The IMF says global disinflation has stalled [2].

In the April 2026 outlook, the IMF projected that global headline inflation would rise modestly in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027 [3].

Global consumer price inflation was 5.8% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025 [1]. In advanced economies it was 2.6% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In emerging market and developing economies it fell from 8.0% to 5.2% [1]. Global headline inflation rose year over year for a third month in a row in May 2026, ending a downward trend in place since early 2024 [1].

The IMF attributes the 2026 rise mainly to higher energy and food prices [1]. Its assumptions imply a 32% rise in crude oil prices and a 22% rise in natural gas prices in 2026 relative to 2025 [1]. It projects fertilizer prices to rise 26% and food prices 8% [1].

The pass-through to consumers has varied. Since the war began, retail gasoline prices have risen 30% in emerging Asia but only 15% in Latin America [1]. Liquefied natural gas prices rose about 50% in Asia and 25% in Europe, while US Henry Hub prices rose about 10% [1].

Assumed 2026 inflation rates are 3.6% for the United States, 2.9% for the euro area and 2.3% for Japan [1]. The IMF expects core inflation to return to target by mid-2027 in the United Kingdom, by end-2027 in Japan and the United States, and only in 2028 in the euro area [1]. Inflation in China is expected to rise from low levels [1].

Figures are annual average percent changes in consumer prices from Table 1 of the IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026 [1]. The world aggregate excludes Venezuela [1]. Values for 2026 and 2027 are IMF projections. Commodity price changes are IMF assumptions based on futures markets as of 10 June 2026 [1]. The scope asked for the 2022 peak, but this report does not give a figure for it because none appeared in the sources reviewed. FREEE.REPORT made no calculations.