Global GDP and Economic Growth: IMF Projections for 2026 and 2027

The IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, compared with an average of 3.5% in 2024-25 [1]. It says the outlook is broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis from its April 2026 World Economic Outlook [2]. In April, the IMF had projected 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, assuming the Middle East conflict stayed limited in duration and scope [3].

The IMF identifies two opposing forces. The first is a negative supply shock from the war in the Middle East. The second is a positive technology shock from AI-related demand and investment [1]. Energy prices were about 25% above prewar levels at the time of the July update [1].

Advanced economies are projected to grow 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 [1]. US growth is projected at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The IMF cites fiscal policy, accommodative financial conditions and technology-related business investment as support [1]. The euro area is projected at 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, and Japan at 0.6% in 2026 [1].

Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 [1]. China's growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025 [1]. India's growth is projected at 6.4% in fiscal year 2026/27, or 7.0% on a calendar-year basis [1].

• Middle East and Central Asia: 0.7% in 2026, then 6.5% in 2027 [1]
• Sub-Saharan Africa: 4.3% in 2026 [1]
• Latin America and the Caribbean: 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027 [1]
• Emerging and developing Europe: 1.9% in 2026 [1]

Global growth in the first quarter of 2026 was 3.0% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis. That was stronger than the 2.7% the IMF had forecast in April [1]. Much of the surprise came from economies tied to the AI hardware value chain. Korea grew 7.5% (annualized) against 1.8% projected in April, and China grew 8.1% on IMF staff seasonally adjusted estimates [1].

The IMF assumes an average oil price of USD 89.27 per barrel in 2026 and USD 78.70 in 2027 [1]. It projects world trade volume growth (goods and services) to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 [1].

The IMF says risks are more balanced than in April but still tilted to the downside [1]. Downside risks include renewed conflict in the Middle East, faster trade fragmentation, a correction in AI-related expectations and weak fiscal buffers [1]. Upside risks include energy markets normalizing faster, stronger technology investment and lower trade barriers [1].

All growth figures are annual percent changes in real GDP from the IMF World Economic Outlook Update of July 2026 (Table 1 and Annex Table 1) [1]. World and group aggregates use purchasing-power-parity weights. On market exchange rates, the IMF projects world growth of 2.4% in 2026 [1]. Values for 2026 and 2027 are IMF projections, and 2024 and 2025 are estimates of actual outcomes. India's figures are on a fiscal-year basis, so the 2024 column is FY2024/25. April 2026 comparisons come from the April 2026 World Economic Outlook page [3]. FREEE.REPORT made no calculations.