India GDP and Economic Growth: Official Estimates and RBI Outlook

India's official GDP estimates are compiled by the National Statistics Office in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and released quarterly, with annual advance, provisional and revised estimates. The fiscal year runs from April to March.

The latest quarterly release, published on 31 August 2026, estimates real GDP for Q1 (April-June) of FY 2026-27 at INR 81.36 lakh crore, against INR 75.46 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2025-26, a growth rate of 7.8% [1]. Growth in the same quarter a year earlier was 6.9% [2].

MoSPI's Provisional Estimates, released on 5 June 2026, put real GDP for FY 2025-26 at INR 323.12 lakh crore, against INR 299.89 lakh crore in 2024-25 [3]. That is a growth rate of 7.7%, compared with 7.1% in 2024-25 [3].

Nominal GDP for FY 2025-26 is estimated at INR 346.36 lakh crore, against INR 318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25, a growth rate of 8.9% [3]. Real GVA is estimated at INR 294.91 lakh crore, up 7.9% from INR 273.36 lakh crore, after 7.3% growth in 2024-25 [3].

Estimates are revised as more data arrive and as base years change. MoSPI's First Advance Estimates of January 2026 had put FY 2025-26 real growth at 7.4% and nominal GDP at INR 357.14 lakh crore [5]. These earlier figures are not directly comparable with the June 2026 Provisional Estimates, which are on the revised series.

In Q1 of FY 2026-27, nominal GDP was INR 88.27 lakh crore, against INR 80.00 lakh crore a year earlier, a growth rate of 10.3% [1]. The gap between nominal growth (10.3%) and real growth (7.8%) reflects the rise in prices over the year [1].

MoSPI described the economy as sustaining its growth momentum despite global headwinds [1].

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, in its resolution of 5 August 2026, projected real GDP growth for FY 2026-27 at 6.7% [4]. Its quarterly path is 7.0% for Q1, 6.4% for Q2, 6.5% for Q3 and 6.8% for Q4, with 7.3% projected for Q1 of 2027-28 [4]. The RBI described the risks as evenly balanced [4].

The RBI cited elevated energy prices and supply chain pressures, and a deficient and uneven south-west monsoon amid El Nino conditions, as risks to the outlook [4]. It cited services momentum, GST rationalisation, strong capacity utilisation and credit flow as supports [4].

The actual Q1 outcome of 7.8% published by MoSPI on 31 August 2026 came in above the RBI's Q1 projection of 7.0% made earlier that month [1][4].

Figures come from MoSPI press notes (quarterly estimates for Q1 FY 2026-27, Provisional Estimates for FY 2025-26 and First Advance Estimates for FY 2025-26) and the RBI Monetary Policy Committee resolution of August 2026.

• Real GDP is GDP at constant prices; nominal GDP is GDP at current prices. Values are in INR lakh crore (1 lakh crore = 1 trillion rupees).
• Years are Indian fiscal years (April-March). FY 2025-26 is April 2025 to March 2026.
• RBI figures are projections, labelled with a P suffix in charts.
• Provisional and quarterly estimates are subject to revision. The First Advance Estimates of January 2026 predate a series revision and are cited only to show how estimates change.
• An IMF World Economic Outlook projection for India was not captured in this research round and is not reported.