Global Trade: WTO Merchandise and Services Trade Outlook 2026-2027
WTO forecasts world merchandise trade volume growth slowing from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, with services trade at 4.8%. Scenarios and Q1 2026 data.
- Updated October 1, 2026
- 5 min read
- 5 sources
- Global
Executive Summary
The WTO's March 2026 Global Trade Outlook forecasts world merchandise trade volume growth slowing to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, then rising to 2.6% in 2027. It expects commercial services trade to grow 4.8% in 2026 after 5.3% in 2025. A sustained energy price shock from the Middle East conflict could cut 2026 merchandise growth to 1.4%. In the first quarter of 2026, merchandise trade volume was up 3.2% year on year.
Key Numbers
Charts
WTO baseline forecast from March 2026. 2026F and 2027F are projections.
- 20254.6%
- 2026F1.9%
- 2027F2.6%
WTO baseline forecast from March 2026. 2026F and 2027F are projections.
- 20255.3%
- 2026F4.8%
- 2027F5.1%
Data Tables
WTO Global Trade Outlook, March 2026. All values are projections.
| Scenario | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| High energy prices | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Upside (short conflict, strong AI spending) | 2.4 | 2.7 |
Overview
The WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics was released on 19 March 2026. Its baseline forecast has world merchandise trade volume growth slowing to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, then rising to 2.6% in 2027 [1]. The WTO expects trade to normalize after a 2025 surge driven by AI-related products and by imports brought forward to avoid new tariffs [1].
Commercial services trade growth is forecast to ease to 4.8% in 2026 after 5.3% in 2025, then reach 5.1% in 2027 [1]. Combined goods and services trade is forecast to grow 2.7% in 2026, against 4.7% in 2025 [1].
Forecast Scenarios
In a high energy price scenario, merchandise trade volume growth could slow to 1.4% in 2026 and then rise to 2.8% in 2027 [2]. In this scenario, services trade would grow 4.1% in 2026 [2]. If the conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending stays strong, merchandise trade growth could instead reach 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027 [1].
The IMF's July 2026 outlook uses a different measure, the average of export and import volumes for goods and services. On that measure, it projects world trade volume growth slowing from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, then 4.3% in 2027 [4].
Recent Developments
WTO and UNCTAD data show seasonally adjusted world merchandise trade volume rose 1.9% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026. It was up 3.2% year on year [3]. In value terms, merchandise trade was up 2% quarter on quarter and 11% year on year [3]. Middle East export volumes were down 9.7% year on year in the first quarter and import volumes 11.9%. The WTO expects larger contractions in the second quarter [3].
Historical Data
Services trade volume grew 6.8% in both 2023 and 2024, according to the WTO's 2025 Global Trade Outlook [5].
Methodology
Trade volume growth is the average of export and import volumes, as defined by the WTO [2]. Values for 2026 and 2027 are WTO projections from March 2026 [1][2]. Quarterly data come from WTO/UNCTAD statistics reported by the WTO on 31 July 2026 [3]. The IMF figure covers goods and services together and is not directly comparable with WTO merchandise volume [4]. The scope also asked for world merchandise exports in USD and UNCTAD trade value figures. Neither appears here because they were not in the sources reviewed. FREEE.REPORT made no calculations.
Sources
- [1]
Middle East conflict weighs further on slowing trade outlook / World Trade Organization / 2026-03-19 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [2]
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics - March 2026 / World Trade Organization / March 2026 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [3]
Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East / World Trade Organization / 2026-07-31 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [4]
World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026 (full report) / International Monetary Fund / July 2026 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [5]
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025 / World Trade Organization / 2025 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
Figures are reproduced from the publishers above. Calculations marked as our own are derived from these figures. Always check the original source before using a number.
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