Global Population: UN World Population Prospects 2024

The UN's World Population Prospects 2024 was published on 11 July 2024. It projects the world population to grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, then return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century [1]. The 2100 population is now expected to be 6% lower, or 700 million fewer, than anticipated a decade ago [1]. The UN's 95% prediction interval for 2100 runs from 9.0 billion to 11.4 billion [2].

The French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) reports the UN projection for 2050 as 9.7 billion [4]. One in four people globally lives in a country whose population has already peaked [3]. In nine countries, including Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia, the population is projected to double between 2024 and 2054 [1]. Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054, including Australia, Canada and the United States [3].

Global fertility was 2.3 live births per woman in 2024. Women now have on average one child fewer than in 1990 [3]. Life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024 and is projected to reach 77.4 years by 2054 [3].

• By the late 2070s, people aged 65 or older are projected to outnumber children under 18 [1]
• By the mid-2030s, people aged 80 or older are projected to outnumber infants under age 1 [1]

Figures come from the UN DESA Population Division's World Population Prospects 2024, the 28th edition of official UN population estimates and projections [5]. It covers 237 countries or areas and draws on 1,910 national censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023 [5]. Projections use the medium scenario unless stated otherwise. The 2050 value comes from INED's summary of the UN projections [4]. The scope also asked about India as the most populous country, but this report does not cover it because the sources reviewed did not state it. FREEE.REPORT made no calculations.