Global Wheat Market: Production, Exporters and Trade 2026/27

USDA estimates world wheat production in 2025/26 at 844.0 million tons, up from 799.1 million tons in 2024/25 [1]. That is a rise of about 5.6 percent (FREEE.REPORT calculation). For 2026/27, the September 2026 forecast is 822.4 million tons, about 2.6 percent less than the record (FREEE.REPORT calculation) [1].

The September forecast was raised from August on larger crops in Australia, Canada, Ukraine and Argentina, partly offset by cuts for Kazakhstan, Russia and the EU [1]. The U.S. season-average farm price for 2026/27 was raised 20 cents to USD 6.40 per bushel [1].

China (141.0 million tons), the EU (133.8 million) and India (121.0 million) are forecast to be the top three producers in 2026/27 [1]. The EU crop is forecast down from 145.1 million tons in 2025/26 [1]. U.S. output is forecast at 41.7 million tons, down from 54.0 million [1].

India is forecast to harvest a record 121.0 million tons in 2026/27 [1]. Its wheat stocks reached 50.5 million tons on August 1, well above the 27.6 million ton reserve requirement [1].

World wheat exports are forecast at 213.2 million tons in trade year 2026/27, down from 226.6 million in 2025/26 [1]. Russia is forecast to export 43.0 million tons, cut by 3.0 million tons this month because of constraints on maritime exports via the Black Sea and Azov Sea [1]. The EU (31.0 million), Canada (30.0 million) and Australia (24.5 million) follow [1].

India's exports are projected at 2.0 million tons in 2026/27, more than four times the previous year, but still under 1 percent of global wheat trade [1]. India banned wheat exports in May 2022. It allowed a 2.5 million ton quota in February 2026, expanded it to 5.0 million tons in April and removed the ban completely in August [1].

Egypt's imports were cut by 1.0 million tons to 12.0 million tons [1].

U.S. Hard Red Winter export bids rose USD 33 to USD 354 per ton between the August and September 2026 reports, on concerns over Black Sea trade disruptions [1]. Russian quotes fell USD 14 per ton as supplies built up and export routes were constrained [1]. The FAO Cereal Price Index, which includes wheat, is covered in the global food market report.

FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief raised its 2026 global wheat production forecast by 0.5 percent (4.2 million tonnes) to 810.7 million tonnes [2]. This would be 3.8 percent below the previous year but still the second-largest crop on record [2]. FAO forecasts world cereal utilization in 2026/27 at 2,965 million tonnes, with wheat use expected to decline [2].

USDA figures come from the September 2026 Grain: World Markets and Trade circular [1]. Production uses local marketing years. Trade uses a July/June trade year. Units are metric tons. 2026/27 values are forecasts. 2025/26 values are estimates that may still change.

FAO figures come from its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief [2]. They use different definitions and timing from USDA, so the two production totals differ. Percentage changes marked as FREEE.REPORT calculations use USDA world totals: (844.0 / 799.1 - 1) and (822.4 / 844.0 - 1).