Global Rice Market: Production, Trade and India's Export Policy
World rice output of 545.9 million tons in 2025/26, India's 2023 export ban and 2024 rollback, and India's role as the top exporter, using USDA and FAO data.
- Updated October 1, 2026
- 6 min read
- 5 sources
- Global
Executive Summary
USDA estimates world milled rice production at 545.9 million tons in 2025/26 and forecasts 533.9 million tons for 2026/27. India is the largest producer and exporter, with exports forecast at 24.0 million tons in 2026, up from 17.9 million in 2024. India banned non-basmati white rice exports in July 2023. In 2024 it replaced the ban with a USD 490 per tonne minimum export price and then removed that floor.
Key Numbers
Charts
Million metric tons, calendar year, USDA. 2026F and 2027F are September 2026 forecasts.
Million metric tons by marketing year, USDA. 2026/27F is a forecast.
Data Tables
Million metric tons, local marketing years. 2026/27 is a forecast.
| Producer | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27F |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 150.2 | 154.0 | 147.0 |
| China | 145.3 | 146.3 | 147.0 |
| Bangladesh | 36.6 | 37.7 | 36.9 |
| Indonesia | 34.1 | 33.8 | 33.6 |
| Vietnam | 26.9 | 26.2 | 26.1 |
| Thailand | 20.8 | 20.7 | 20.3 |
| World | 542.3 | 545.9 | 533.9 |
Overview
USDA estimates world milled rice production at 545.9 million tons in 2025/26, after 542.3 million tons in 2024/25 [1]. Its September 2026 forecast for 2026/27 is 533.9 million tons, cut this month for India and Bangladesh [1]. World ending stocks are forecast at 197.0 million tons in 2026/27, down from 202.7 million tons [1].
FAO puts world rice utilization at 559.0 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 0.5 percent, driven by population-led growth in food use [5].
Major Producers
India (154.0 million tons) and China (146.3 million tons) produced about 28.2 percent and 26.8 percent of world milled rice in 2025/26 (FREEE.REPORT calculation) [1]. India's 2026/27 crop is forecast lower at 147.0 million tons, after a 3.0 million ton cut this month, partly on concerns about a weak monsoon [1]. Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand follow [1].
Trade
World rice exports are forecast at 60.7 million tons in calendar year 2026 and 62.7 million tons in 2027 [1]. India is forecast to ship 24.0 million tons in 2026, about 39.5 percent of world trade (FREEE.REPORT calculation) [1]. Vietnam (8.1 million tons) and Thailand (7.0 million tons) follow [1]. India's 2026 forecast was cut 0.5 million tons on weak sales to the Middle East [1].
The Philippines is the largest importer, at 5.5 million tons forecast for 2026 [1]. China's 2026 imports are forecast at 4.3 million tons, driven by buying of broken rice for feed [1]. In the first seven months of 2026 China imported nearly 1.4 million tons of broken rice, the most since the 2022 record [1].
Policy & Regulation: India's Export Restrictions
India restricted rice exports from September 2022 [4]. On July 20, 2023, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued Notification No. 20/2023, banning exports of non-basmati white rice under HS code 1006.30.90 with immediate effect [2].
In September 2024 India ended the ban and replaced it with a minimum export price of USD 490 per tonne [3]. In October 2024 the Ministry of Commerce scrapped that minimum export price [4].
India's exports rose from 17.9 million tons in 2024 to 21.7 million tons in 2025, about 21 percent (FREEE.REPORT calculation) [1]. In July 2026 India raised administered rates for broken rice used in ethanol production, which USDA expects to tighten domestic supplies and raise export prices [1].
Prices
Methodology
Production, stocks and trade come from USDA FAS Grain: World Markets and Trade, September 2026 [1]. Rice is on a milled basis. Production uses local marketing years. Trade uses calendar years. 2026 and 2027 trade values and 2026/27 production are forecasts. Policy dates come from the USDA GAIN report on the 2023 ban [2], IFPRI [3] and S&P Global's report on the Ministry of Commerce decision [4]. Utilization is from FAO [5].
FREEE.REPORT calculations: production shares = country 2025/26 output / world 545.9 million tons; India's trade share = 24.0 / 60.7 million tons; India's export growth = 21.7 / 17.9 - 1.
Sources
- [1]
Grain: World Markets and Trade (September 2026) / USDA Foreign Agricultural Service / 2026-09 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [2]
India Bans the Export of Non-Basmati White Rice (GAIN Report IN2023-0059) / USDA Foreign Agricultural Service / 2023 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [3]
India lifts export restrictions on rice / International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) / 2024 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [4]
India removes minimum export price on non-basmati white rice / S&P Global Commodity Insights / 2024-10 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
- [5]
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief / FAO / 2026 / Accessed October 1, 2026 / View source
Figures are reproduced from the publishers above. Calculations marked as our own are derived from these figures. Always check the original source before using a number.
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