Global Coal Market: Record Demand, China and India

Global coal demand reached a record 8,687 Mt in 2023, up 2.5% year-on-year [2]. The IEA's Coal 2025 report estimates 2024 demand at 8,805 Mt, an increase of 1.5% [3]. It expects demand to rise another 0.5% in 2025 to 8.85 billion tonnes, a new record [4]. The IEA describes global consumption as having reached a plateau that may decline slightly by 2030 [4].

Demand is concentrated in Asia. China and India accounted for 71% of global coal consumption in 2024 [3]. China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, and its 2025 demand was on course to match its 2024 level [4].

The Coal 2024 report expected:

• China's demand to grow 1% in 2024 to 4.9 Bt, a record [1].
• India's demand to grow by over 5% to 1.3 Bt, a level only China had reached before [1].
• EU demand to fall 12% in 2024, after a 23% fall in 2023 [1].
• US demand to fall 5% in 2024, after a 17% fall in 2023 [1].

In its forecast to 2027, the IEA expects year-to-year changes in global demand of less than 50 Mt. India's demand rises by just over 100 Mt, the largest increase of any country, and EU demand falls by 68 Mt [1].

In 2023, power-sector coal use rose by 2.5% to 5,855 Mt, helped by low hydropower output [2]. Non-power use of steam coal and lignite rose slightly in 2024 to 1,757 Mt, about 23% of total steam coal and lignite use [3]. Global metallurgical (met) coal consumption, used mainly in steelmaking, is projected at 1,114 Mt in 2025. China accounts for around 67% of that, about 742 Mt [3].

Global coal production was expected to pass 9 Bt for the first time in 2024, with record output in China, India and Indonesia [1]. China accounts for half of global production [1]. Coal 2025 expects 2025 production to stay close to the 2024 record and then decline slightly through 2030 [4]. Global coal imports reached an all-time high in 2024 as growth in China and India more than offset falling imports in Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei and the EU [4].

Figures come from the IEA's Coal 2024 report (December 2024, forecast to 2027) and Coal 2025 report (forecast to 2030). Coal 2025 revised 2024 global demand to 8,805 Mt, against the 8.77 Bt forecast in Coal 2024 [2][3]. Where the two editions differ, this report uses the later one. The China and India 2024 values come from Coal 2024 and were forecasts when published.

Volumes are in physical tonnes. Mt is million tonnes and Bt is billion tonnes. This report includes no FREEE.REPORT calculations.