Global Natural Gas Market: Demand Growth, LNG Supply and Prices

After the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets slowly rebalanced, and global demand hit a new all-time high in 2024 [1]. Demand grew 2.8% in 2024. In 2025 growth slowed to 1%, an increase of around 40 bcm (1.4 EJ) [3]. The IEA links the slowdown to weaker industrial activity and relatively high spot LNG prices in the first half of 2025 [3].

In 2025, most of the extra demand came from the United States and the European Union, where colder winter weather supported consumption, and from the Middle East [3]. Asia Pacific demand stayed flat at 2024 levels [3].

China's gas demand grew around 2% in 2025, compared with 7% in 2024. Weaker industry and fast renewable power growth limited demand [3]. Japan's demand fell by almost 1% [3].

By sector, buildings accounted for almost 70% of 2025 demand growth [3]. In 2024, industry and power together had accounted for around 65% of incremental demand [3].

LNG supply grew 2.5% (13 bcm) in 2024, well below its average growth rate of 8% between 2016 and 2020 [1]. Project delays and feedgas problems at legacy producers in Angola, Egypt, and Trinidad and Tobago held growth back [1].

Supply picked up in 2025. LNG output grew by around 5% (nearly 20 bcm) year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025 [5]. In the second half of the year, growth reached 10% (28 bcm) as new liquefaction projects in the United States, Canada and Africa ramped up [4]. The IEA's Gas 2025 report describes a coming 'LNG wave' of around 300 billion cubic metres per year of new LNG supply [5]. Final investment decisions in US LNG projects reached an all-time high in the first nine months of 2025 [2]. Under current forward-curve prices, the IEA's base case sees around 65 bcm of surplus LNG supply over 2024-2030 [2].

As supply eased, TTF and Asian spot LNG prices in H2 2025 were 14% and 17% lower than in H2 2024 [4]. The correlation between European and Asian benchmark prices reached an all-time high of 0.955 in 2025 [4]. The IEA attributes this to the growing share of LNG cargoes that can be sent to any destination [4].

All figures come from IEA publications: the Gas Market Report Q1-2025 and Q1-2026 executive summaries, the Gas 2025 medium-term report and the Global Energy Review 2026 natural gas chapter. Volumes are in billion cubic metres (bcm). Some 2025 figures are preliminary.

The IGU World LNG Report's global LNG trade volume in million tonnes could not be verified within this research round, so it is not included. This report includes no FREEE.REPORT calculations.