Global Fertilizer Market: 2026 Price Shock and Affordability

The World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertilizer prices will increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices [2]. It expects fertilizer affordability to fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farm incomes and threatening future yields [2]. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026 and energy prices 24% [2].

The shock stems from the war in the Middle East and disruption of oil, gas and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz [1][2].

Between February and April 2026, urea prices surged over 80%, while DAP and TSP rose about 16% and 23% respectively [1]. Potash and phosphate rock prices showed no movement over the same period [1]. The World Bank's May 2026 food security update reported a 46% month-on-month rise in urea prices and an 8% rise in agricultural price indices linked to the Hormuz disruption [1]. In Iraq, urea rose about 19% in a single week in April 2026 [1].

FAO also cited concerns over input supplies after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a factor supporting maize prices in August 2026 [4].

Fertilizer Daily, reporting World Bank projections, says urea prices are forecast to rise nearly 60% on average in 2026 before easing in 2027 as Middle Eastern exports recover [3]. DAP prices are projected to rise about 6% in 2026 and fall about 10% in 2027 as new capacity arrives, while MOP (potash) prices are expected to gain about 12% in 2026 and fall about 6% in 2027 [3].

Higher fertilizer prices feed into food costs with a lag. The World Bank expects its food price index to rise about 2% in 2026, with grains up 4% and oils and meals up 8% [1]. Farmers in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Thailand have seen profitability decline because of higher fertilizer and energy costs [1]. In South Asia, governments are responding with fertilizer procurement, subsidies, reserve management and import diversification [1].

If the conflict is prolonged, WFP estimates up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity in 2026, according to the World Bank [2].

Price projections come from the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2026), as presented in the World Bank press release reposted on ReliefWeb and the World Bank Food and Nutrition Security Update of 29 May 2026. Product-level forecasts for DAP and MOP are as reported by Fertilizer Daily, citing the World Bank. All changes are percentage changes in nominal US dollar prices; 2026 and 2027 values are projections. Data on global fertilizer use (FAO, IFA) were not verified for this edition and are not included.