Global Steel Market: Demand, Forecast and Regional Trends

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its October 2024 Short Range Outlook forecasting that global steel demand would drop 0.9% in 2024 to 1,751 million tonnes (Mt) [1]. After three years of decline, worldsteel expects a broad recovery in the rest of the world in 2025, with global steel demand rebounding 1.2% to 1,772 Mt [1].

worldsteel projects developed-world steel demand to fall 2.0% in 2024, as major steel-using economies like the US, Japan, Korea and Germany face significant declines [1]. The forecast is more optimistic for 2025, with 1.9% growth driven by a long-awaited upturn in EU steel demand and modest recoveries in the US and Japan [1].

worldsteel attributes the weak 2024 outlook to persistent headwinds including declining household purchasing power, aggressive monetary tightening and escalating geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Weakness in housing construction, driven by tight financing conditions, is a specific drag on steel demand [1].

The 2025 recovery is expected to come from easier financing conditions and a modest cyclical upturn in construction and manufacturing [1].

Figures come from the worldsteel Short Range Outlook published in October 2024 [1]. worldsteel's SRO is a semi-annual forecast of apparent steel use and is prepared by its Economics Committee. Values are in million tonnes (Mt) of apparent steel use. 'Apparent' demand is production plus net imports and so is a close proxy for consumption; it is not the same as end-use demand because changes in inventories are not deducted. The 2024 and 2025 figures are forecasts, not actuals - users should check later worldsteel releases for revisions.