Green Hydrogen Market: Demand, Low-Emissions Supply and Project Pipeline

Global hydrogen demand rose to almost 100 Mt in 2024, up 2% from 2023, in line with overall energy demand growth [2]. It passed 100 Mt in 2025, driven by traditional uses [1]. Industry and refining accounted for almost all demand in 2025, and new applications are still a very minor share [1].

Low-emissions hydrogen production, which includes green (renewable electrolytic) hydrogen, grew 20% in 2025 to almost 1 Mt [1]. The IEA expects another record year in 2026, when low-emissions hydrogen would pass 1% of global production for the first time [1].

Low-emissions hydrogen has grown from a handful of demonstration projects to more than 200 committed investments since the first Global Hydrogen Review in 2021 [3].

Momentum slowed in 2025:

• The announced pipeline for 2030 shrank to 27 Mt, mainly because of delays past 2030 and cancellations [1].
• Since GHR-25, about 300 ktpa of extra production reached a final investment decision (FID) [1].
• Committed projects and those with strong potential to operate by 2030 fell from 10 Mt to just above 6 Mt [1].
• About 22 Mt of potential production may miss 2030 if investment decisions are not taken by early 2027 [1].
• Two-thirds of that at-risk volume is in Europe, North America and Latin America [1].
• New FIDs in production projects fell for the first time in 2025 [1].

Global installed electrolysis capacity doubled in 2025 to more than 4 GW, and China accounted for nearly three-quarters of new installations [1]. Low technology costs and experience with large projects helped China grow faster. Overcapacity, however, is driving market consolidation [1]. The IEA says renewable hydrogen in China could become cost-competitive with fossil-based hydrogen by 2030 [1].

In Europe, the first large-scale projects are expected to start operating in 2026, but slow policy implementation is delaying scale-up [1]. Africa's hydrogen demand was 3.1 Mt in 2024, around 3% of the global total, led by Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria [1].

India's National Green Hydrogen Mission was not, in the end, given demand quotas for refining, fertilisers and steel, although the IEA noted these were still under discussion [4].

The IEA names high costs, uncertain demand, unclear or complex regulation and a lack of infrastructure as the main barriers to uptake [1]. In most regions outside China, low-emissions hydrogen will cost more than fossil-based hydrogen in the near term [1].

The 2026 Middle East conflict exposed how concentrated supply chains for hydrogen-based products are. The region produces around one-sixth of global hydrogen [1]. It makes up over one-quarter of global ammonia trade, almost 40% of urea trade and almost 45% of methanol trade [1]. Urea prices doubled between January and May 2026 [1].

Figures come from the IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2026 executive summary (June 2026), the Global Hydrogen Review 2025 executive summary and report page, and the Global Hydrogen Review 2023. The IEA's 'low-emissions hydrogen' covers renewable electrolytic (green) hydrogen, plus hydrogen from nuclear power and from fossil fuels with carbon capture. It is broader than 'green hydrogen'. Mt means million tonnes of hydrogen and ktpa means thousand tonnes per year.

The Press Information Bureau (PIB) figures on India's National Green Hydrogen Mission production target and budget could not be verified within this research round, so they are not included. This report includes no FREEE.REPORT calculations.