Global Sugar Market: Production, Trade and Prices 2025/26-2026/27

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global sugar production in 2026/27 at 184.9 million tons (raw value), down 1.2 million tons, as lower output in Brazil, the European Union, the United States and Thailand more than offsets higher production in India [1]. Global exports are forecast down slightly to 62.3 million tons, and ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly, mainly in China and India [1].

For 2025/26, USDA revised global production down 3.2 million tons to 186.1 million, global imports up to 58.3 million tons and global exports down 3.4 million tons to 62.6 million [1].

Brazil production is forecast down 1.3 million tons to 42.5 million in 2026/27, on expectations that the ethanol/sugar mix will favour ethanol at 52% versus 48% for sugar [1]. The shift follows an August 2025 policy change raising the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1].

India is the world's second-largest producer, and 2026/27 output is forecast to recover 3.6 million tons to 33.6 million, after 2025/26 was revised down 5.3 million tons to 30.0 million due to excessive rainfall [1]. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka account for nearly 60% of India's sugar production [1]. India's exports are forecast at 3.6 million tons and imports at 2.4 million tons in 2026/27 [1].

European Union production is forecast to fall 1.2 million tons to 14.4 million on lower sugarbeet area, Thailand to fall 1.8 million tons to 9.5 million, and China to be nearly unchanged at 12.7 million [1]. US production is forecast at 8.0 million tons [1].

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 106.4 points in August 2026, up 11.3 points (11.9%) from July and its highest level since June 2025 [2]. FAO linked the rise to downgraded EU sugarbeet yields after hot and dry weather, El Nino-related weather in Asian producers, lower output in Brazil's Center-South region and India's announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports [2].

Earlier in the year, FAO reported the index rose 7.5% in May 2026 from April but was 13.1% below its level a year earlier, as reported by JIRCAS [3].

India's sugar sector is heavily regulated. Growers receive the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP), a guaranteed federal minimum price, and mills must pay growers within two weeks of delivery [1]. The government also sets a minimum mill selling price, regulates domestic sales quantities and adjusts export quotas [1].

Production and trade figures are from the USDA FAS Sugar: World Markets and Trade circular of May 2026, in metric tons raw value for centrifugal sugar. 2025/26 values are estimates and 2026/27 values are forecasts. The production chart uses the world total row of the circular's production table. Price data are from the FAO Food Price Index release (index, 2014-2016=100). The May 2026 FAO price movement is taken from a JIRCAS summary of the FAO release.